| Registro completo |
| Provedor de dados: |
Ecology and Society
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| País: |
Canada
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| Título: |
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
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| Autores: |
Steffen, Will; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; Australian National University, Australia; will.steffen@anu.edu.au
Noone, Kevin; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; Department of Applied Environmental Science, Stockholm University; kevin.noone@stockholmresilience.su.se
Chapin, F. Stuart III; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks; fschapiniii@alaska.edu
Lambin, Eric; Department of Geography, University of Louvain; lambin@geog.ucl.ac.be
Lenton, Timothy M; School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia; t.lenton@uea.ac.uk
Scheffer, Marten; Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University; Marten.Scheffer@wur.nl
Folke, Carl; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; carl.folke@beijer.kva.se
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; Environmental Change Institute and Tyndall Centre, Oxford University ; schellnhuber@pik-potsdam.de
de Wit, Cynthia A; Department of Applied Environmental Science, Stockholm University; cynthia.de.wit@itm.su.se
Hughes, Terry; ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University; terry.hughes@jcu.edu.au
van der Leeuw, Sander; School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University; vanderle@asu.edu
Rodhe, Henning; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University; rodhe@misu.su.se
Snyder, Peter K; Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, University of Minnesota; pksnyder@umn.edu
Costanza, Robert; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Vermont; rcostanz@uvm.edu
Svedin, Uno; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; uno.svedin@formas.se
Falkenmark, Malin; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; Stockholm International Water Institute; malin.falkenmark@siwi.org
Karlberg, Louise; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; Stockholm Environment Institute; louise.karlberg@stockholmresilience.su.se
Corell, Robert W; The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment ; Corell@heinzctr.org
Fabry, Victoria J; Department of Biological Sciences, California State University San Marcos; fabry@csusm.edu
Hansen, James; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; James.E.Hansen@nasa.gov
Walker, Brian; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University; CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems; Brian.Walker@csiro.au
Liverman, Diana; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment; Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona ; diana.liverman@eci.ox.ac.uk
Richardson, Katherine; Earth System Science Centre, University of Copenhagen; kari@science.ku.dk
Crutzen, Paul; Max Planck Institute for Chemistry; air@mpch-mainz.mpg.de
Foley, Jonathan; Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota; jfoley@umn.edu
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| Data: |
2009-11-18
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| Ano: |
2009
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| Palavras-chave: |
Atmospheric aerosol loading
Biogeochemical nitrogen cycle
Biological diversity
Chemical pollution
Climate change
Earth
Global freshwater use
Land system change
Ocean acidification
Phosphorus cycle
Planetary boundaries
Stratospheric ozone
Sustainability
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| Resumo: |
Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m-2 in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite ≥ 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km3 yr-1 of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social–ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of “planetary boundaries” lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the “planetary playing field” for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.
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| Tipo: |
Peer-Reviewed Reports
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| Idioma: |
Inglês
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| Identificador: |
vol14/iss2/art32/
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| Editor: |
Resilience Alliance
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| Formato: |
text/html application/pdf
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| Fonte: |
Ecology and Society; Vol. 14, No. 2 (2009)
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